More on statistics
1. The NUH Q&A sheet
2. The figures don't appear to be justified
3 Our stats revisited
1. The NUH Q&A sheet says this about why we need a university in Herefordshire:
1.1
Every year 1,800 young people between the ages of 18 and 24 leave the County for higher education or better paying jobs. 60% of these do not return. Over time this has left the County with a significant missing generation of economically viable citizens.
1.2
A somewhat dramatic statement - a significant missing generation of economically viable citizens. Has anyone noticed?
Surely the question to be asked is why a university in Herefordshire would make any difference to this situation Those graduating from any uni here would still not find jobs, or jobs paying a sensible amount. Let's see the evidence for ".. plans to create 4,500 hi-tech jobs by 2020 . . " 3.4 here
1.3
It may be that the assumption is that new graduates will stay in the county and set up new businesses themselves. Again - is that a reasonable assumption? I don't think so. New graduates are very rarely equipped to go straight into setting up in business. They need experience by working for someone else - and that's hard to do in Herefordshire right now or in the foreseeable future despite Bill Jackson (1,2).
1.4
If Herefordshire were a good place for new businesses, then people would be coming here to set them up. No, people setting up new businesses - at least of the high tech sort that employ university graduates - generally go where there are other hi-tech businesses, such as Birmingham and that area of the West Midlands, or SE England.
2. The figures don't appear to be justified or backed up by analysis
2.1
For instance we have this statement on the "What We Do" page of the NUH website:
There is a shortfall of some 17,000 economically active residents to make the county economically sustainable. source
Really? And how is that calculated? I wasn't aware that the county is heading for bankruptcy - which is the implication of not having these 17,000 economically active residents.
Herefordshire’s 15-‐year Economic Development plan
2.2
And then we have another statement:
Over 30 years the presence of a university will create add over 7,000 economically active residents to the county. here
2.2.1
So that's 233 new economically active residents being added per year. With about 5,000* students in all, and typically three year courses, about 1/3 would be graduating each year. That's 1,667 graduates per year. That's 14% of graduates projected to stay in Herefordshire. That figure needs to be justified. Even more in the context of most graduates leaving the county to find their jobs.
* 5500 students and staff here.
2.2.2
And if the previous statement is correct, then the county will be unsustainable, because it will still be 10,000 economically active residents short!
2.2.3
No mention of HE in the Herefordshire Economic Development Strategy here
The following pages have contact details for organisations, groups and schemes which may provide useful information to support your business.here - blank 0n 30 April 2014
No mention of HE here.
Details of projects that Herefordshire Business Board supports and is involved with are listed over the following pages.
here blank
No mention of university or education on the News page here
pagetop here for pasting More on statistics here
Return to Is there a need for a university in Herefordshire? here and find 4.1 again
Home page here
3 Our stats revisited
You may have missed the Hereford Journal letter pages - more on my reply
4.2
NUH says:
4.2.1
Over 30 years the presence of a university will create add over 7,000 economically active residents to the county.
source 7/184 = 3.8% increase. This figure doesn't allow for non-economically active residents.
4.2.2
There is a shortfall of some 17,000 economically active residents to make the county economically sustainable. source
4.3
You can see why:
4.3.1
The county has an older age structure than England & Wales as a whole, with 22% of the population aged 65 years or above (40,800 people), compared to 17% nationally.
4.3.2
The total population of Herefordshire has grown by 6% between 2001 and 2012, which is less than the 8% growth in the population of England and Wales overall. This growth has been entirely due to net in-migration (largely immigration).
4.3.3
Forecasts predict the population will grow to 205,300 by 2031.
4.4
The forecasts predict 11.6% growth in all residents which may depend on net in-migration (largely immigration). If the net in-migration is largely due to immigration, that population is unlikely to take up university places. even in the mid-term future.
4.5
There should be response from readers re comparing like with like.
From Hereford Journal letter pages - more on my reply - here
pagetop here for pasting More on statistics here
Return to Is there a need for a university in Herefordshire? here and find 4.1 again
Home page here
